Back in January 2003 I was already heralding the end of the property boom. My research results, which take anywhere from 9 months to a year and a half to exhibit in the market as far as everyone else is concerned, alluded me to the end of the property boom. With the only thing delaying the crash being low interest rates.
And delaying is all it can do. It cannot put it off. Just delay the inevitable.
And now we come to my next prediction. One I wish I were wrong about but, alas, I feel I am only too right about. One I have touched on previously. And one I will go into in more detail here. And that is...
We are about to suffer an economic collapse that could make The Great Depression seem like a cake walk.
And here's why:
First there was the dotcom boom. This was created in part by Bill Clinton and Alan Greenspan. The low interest rates coupled with hype saw large investments into companies which had never made a single penny of profit. And people bought and sold stock on the price of the stock and not the underlying business. (Studying
"Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness Of Crowds" reveals the same insanity years ago in France and England - buying stock in companies that had never made a single penny in profit. With one such company even saying their enterprise was "a secret enterprise which no-one can be told about but which will make lots of money" - and they sold loads of stock!)
Eventually, when it was too obvious to ignore, the truth came home to roost. Companies that have never made a single penny in profit are not worth a penny either. And so the investors cashed out, took their profits and fled the market, causing the dotbomb crash.
They took their money and put it into real estate.
Together with super low interest rates thanks to Greenspan and a flood of money, the housing sector erupted in price, not because of first-time home buyers coming into the market.
In Australia, for example, the percentage of home owners (which includes actual owners as well as those paying off mortgages) versus renters, has been roughly 70% - 75% home owners and 25% - 30% renters. And it has been this way for about 50 years.
At the height of Australia's property boom, some politicians were bragging about how 70% of Australians are now home owners - as if their "first home owners grant" was the reason why. Which to those of us in the know, reveals no change from the usual.
(Side note: I have clients in the loan business and they never gave a loan because someone had the first home owners grant. You had to show your deposit came from saving first and meet their other normal lending criteria first. The grant came later and was used to help pay down the loan a bit.)
As the percentages of owners vs renters never really changed from the norm, that means the price boom was more about people cashing out in one area and buying in other areas where they could get more house for their money. Such as selling up in Sydney and buying in Brisbane - where prices have traditionally been much lower than in Sydney, sometimes as much as 50% lower for the same house situated the same distance from the city. The Limited Supply meets the Mr Money Bags Sydney demand, and prices rise.
But wages don't rise as fast as house prices. Which means people really stretch themselves financially to buy the overpriced houses. Specially the locals. Who now have to buy houses at a prices which have been driven up by cashed-out interstate buyers/investors.
When the limit has been reached it has been reached and no interest rate change will stop it.
For example: Small 3 bedroom fibro houses built in the '70s, are now selling for $360,000 in my area.
On a 30 year mortgage at 6%, the repayment is $2,158 per month - which works out to be $498 per week. On to this the "rates" needs to be added which are about $1,400 per year. Plus repair and insurance. At least another $1,000 per year. Which, when spread over the course of the month bring the total monthly outlay to $2,358 - which is $544 per week.
The average weekly income is about $500 per week. So to afford a house at these crazy prices, both partners needs to work. With one partner's entire income going to pay off the house. This is a natural upper limit governed by income levels.
If there is a slight hiccup - a week sick, a small interest rate rise, major repair job, etc., then this couple will be in real bad financial strife.
Multiply this example by pretty well all new home-buyers and negative-gearing investors in the last three years of the boom, and you have a recipe for disaster.
What will happen now is as follows...
To cover the deficit created by the war effort and other anti-terrorism initiatives, the govt will print money. This will send inflation through the roof (which could cause house prices to rise artificially). To curb it, interest rates will be raised.
Raised interest rates will devastate the homeowners. They won't be able to afford their properties. As just a small 2% rise from 6% to 8% will see a monthly repayment of $2,641 ($2,841 with the extras added) sticking with my $360,000 house example. Which is an increase monthly repayment of $483 - or $111 a week.
Investors who had fallen for the "negative gear your way to wealth" malarky, will find the higher interest rates are eating them alive. And they will understand why seasoned investors call negative geared houses "alligators" - because they just keep on eating you.
Many will simply let their house go into foreclosure. Others will try to sell. But they will find a glut of houses on the market as everyone in the same boat tries to sell. The price of real estate will fall - it has already begun falling in Sydney and Melbourne (Australia's two largest cities) as I write this and we haven't hit the real bad times yet!
Many people will be upside-down financially - they will owe more to the bank than their house is worth.
Some will try to rent their property out. But with a glut of properties on the market, they will either stay vacant or competition for rent will drive the rent price down (During the height of the boom, rent prices in my area were going up 25%+ per year. For the last 18 months they have stagnated.)
With such low rents, normal investors will not bother acquiring the overpriced houses as investments.
Couple this with many new housing projects coming to completion and you have over-supply and under-demand. Prices drop.
With the real estate section plummeting money will flee real estate (those who are smart have already fled or are fleeing right now as I pen this missive). Because interest rates are high it will stay out of the stockmarket. The stockmarket will suffer as a side-effect of the depressed housing sector. Slow housing sales, keeps money out of circulation and thus out of the hands of the businesses listed on the stock exchange. Reduced earnings for them sees their stock price drop. Money will stay in the banks earning a risk-free good rate of return.
The economy will slow. Just at a time the baby-boomers are beginning to retire and draw on the govt funds, as well as take their money out of the markets.
Because the govt never had money put aside to pay the pension money, and had always paid it out of current taxes, the retiring baby-boomers will be a massive drop off out of the workforce of taxable employees.
The only solutions the govt will immediately see are:
1: Tax the still-employed workers to make up the shortfall - but that will not happen because there is only so much you can tax a person.
2: Print more money - which will lead to higher inflation. This is their tried and true method so it will be the first thing they try.
The inflation will eventually see wages increase and "bracket creep" will see people paying more of their income in tax, while prices rise. Making them worse off.
Depending how bad the housing sector is hit - and I think it will be pretty bad - a lot of those in the construction field will be out of work. Thus, more money will be out of circulation. The ripple effect will be very bad...
Fewer houses being built means less call for lumber for frames, carpets and tiles, garage doors and so on. Those involved directly in those items (carpenters, door installers, etc.) will see themselves with less work. Which means less money for them. The companies involved in the supplying see a drop-off in business. Fewer houses being built means fewer garage door sales. So the company as a whole loses money. Maybe even lays off staff.
The transport companies who hauled the goods which made up the houses, also see a drop-off in work. Maybe they also lay people off.
With fewer people working, and lay-offs a plenty, less money is in circulation. Inflation is still high and coupled with interest rates have made homes unaffordable.
People start cutting back on "luxury" goods and services. They begin doing their own cleaning and lawn mowing. The dog can go without washing - or they also do that themselves. They allow the car to get dirty or do it themselves at home. Restaurant outings decline. Coffee shop spending goes down.
Less and less money circulates within the economy.
With such dire financial times, housing is definitely not affordable. Prices drop further. People are upside-down on their mortgages - owe more than the house is worth - and there appears to be no end in sight. (You only have to look at the recession which Australia suffered when the leftist govt removed the ability for property investors to claim tax deductions on the expenses of the property. Investors fled the property market and a recession ensued.)
And all of this is coming together at this point in time.
- Boomers retiring taking money out of the market - and taking themselves out of the work force and thus removing themselves as a source of tax for the govt
- Boomers becoming a drain on the tax system because social security money is paid out of current tax collected and not some "fund" where social security was stored
- Property market decline following the boom
- Interest rate rise
- Inflation - caused by govt printing money to make up shortfall from retiring baby boomers and to cover deficit and war on terror
With such a confluence of events, this depression will be a big one. Lasting at least 10 years and most probably closer to 20!
Normal housing cycles are roughly ten years in length. But normal housing cycles don't have hyper inflation coupled with mass workforce exodus.
There is ONE way to stop this "mother of all depressions" and that is to remove all income taxation. Stop taking 30% - 50% of the people's income and money will remain in circulation. The govt will actually take in more tax from the 10% GST tax on goods and services. And will not have to print money to fund the retiring baby boomers. Thus inflation will not become as high. And the devastation caused by increased interest rates will likewise be avoided because people will have more money to afford the increased rates. And, in fact, we might actually see a boom - a perpetual boom in the overall economy.
But such a move would take a lot of guts. And, from a political point of view, is likely only to be implemented by a conservative govt who can see far enough ahead. And not a leftist govt who is more about increasing taxes to pay for ever more govt-provided services people don't really need.
The media may not report on the depression for a while. But rest assured by the time they do, it will have been underway for at least 6 months, and even longer.
Now you know.
And if you had read my warnings previously, you would have known I predicted this to start just after the US election (late 2004 early 2005) or maybe even before the election. I now think, it has started!!!
My evidence is the weakening US dollar. Our Aussie dollar is gaining strength against the greenback. But, as some of the media seemed surprised, NOT against other currencies like the Pound or the Euro. And this means it is not gaining strength against the greenback but rather, the greenback is weakening. Due to inflation caused by the govt printing money to pay for the huge deficit.
The price of oil is going up. And inflation will soon be evident. Even the US talking heads are showing concern about the coming inflation due to the deficit - because they know the govt prints its way out of deficits.
As the US dollar drops in value, the price of gold rises. Though looking at the price of gold compared to the Euro, little change has taken place. Another indication that it is not gold that is rising but the US dollar that is falling.
A weak $US will make all imported goods in the US more expensive. Some will not import due to this and those that do will offer the goods at the higher inflated price - which people won't be able to afford anyway.
It's just going to be one bad trip, dude. Unless the abolishing of income tax takes place.
Barring that, my personal, informal and unqualified suggestion (which is not financial advice at all) is - sell the home you live in RIGHT NOW and rent. And if you do not want to rent, downgrade into a cheaper home you will still be able to afford if interest rates hit 10%. This way YOU will still be ok.
If you want a "safe" investment, put your money into term-deposits at the bank. As interest rates rise so too will the interest you are paid by the bank. And make it one of the large national banks - not an independent small bank.
Cut back on your hyper-spending lifestyle NOW. So you will be used to it by the time everyone else starts feeling the brunt of the crisis. This will also give you more disposable income.
And do your darndest to pay off your credit card(s) and be free of all debt other than home loan. (I personally think being free of a home loan is also smart. But I realize many people somehow feel more "secure" if they are paying off a home instead of renting. So if you must have a home loan, downgrade your home into a more affordable one. But do it NOW before it is too late.)
There is nothing you can do to stop the coming collapse. The best you can do is position yourself so it will not effect you too much.
Is my take a chicken little sky is falling stance? I wish it were. Alas, I seldom make predictions. And when I do, they invariably come true. This is one I wish I were wrong about but am not. Mark my words. The media will begin reporting it soon. And it will progressively get worse - unless income tax is abolished.